Heading into the final fixture of the regular season, there are still five sides who could finish fifth in the table and set-up a two-legged affair with the Black Cats.
It all hinges on the final day on Saturday, with Bristol City, Coventry, Millwall, Blackburn and Middlesbrough all fighting for the two remaining play-off spots.
Here’s a closer look at the sides in contention, the final day permutations and whether Sunderland will have a preference on who they play.
BRISTOL CITY
Currently fifth and the favourites to stay there, Bristol City host a Preston side woefully out of form on Saturday and a win – which appears the most likely outcome – would set up a semi-final against Sunderland.
The Robins, however, must deal with the final day pressure and expectation and bounce back from successive defeats against Luton Town and Leeds United.
Boss Liam Manning has tried to calm nerves by stressing the need for perspective. Bristol City would, he says, have “snapped your hand off” had they been offered this scenario before a ball was kicked this season.
Preston, on paper, look kind opponents, but North End’s dreadful run of eight games without a win has seen them dragged into relegation trouble. They’re now just two places and one point above the drop zone. Will they be able to stir themselves and stun the hosts?
A draw would be enough for Bristol City to finish fifth providing Coventry, Millwall and Blackburn all failed to win.
It’s only a couple of weeks ago that Bristol City beat Sunderland 2-1 but Trai Hume’s early red card on Good Friday meant it was difficult to read too much into the game. The sides drew 1-1 with they met at the Stadium of Light in December.
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COVENTRY CITY
When Coventry thumped Sunderland 3-0 ahead of the March international break, a place in the play-offs looked nailed on for Frank Lampard’s side. But they’ve won just two of seven since and successive away defeats has left them in need of a final day result against Middlesbrough.
Beat Boro and they’re in but to finish fifth and to set up a Sunderland clash they’ll need Bristol City to fail to beat Preston.
If Coventry lose they’ll be leapfrogged by Michael Carrick’s side. Draw and they’re relying on Millwall and Blackburn failing to win at Burnley and Sheffield United.
Despite Coventry’s recent stutter, a first leg away at the CBS Arena would still be a tough ask for Sunderland, for the Sky Blues have won six of their last seven games on home turf. But a semi-final clash against Coventry wouldn’t look as daunting now as it might have done a couple of months ago.
MILLWALL
Millwall’s slim play-off hopes looked to have disappeared when they lost at Sunderland at the end of March, a result which left them 13th in the Championship table.
But the Lions have won five of six since, including an impressive victory at Sheffield United. They’re going to need to repeat the trick at Burnley on Saturday.
A draw won’t be enough for the Lions because it would either mean they finished behind Coventry or Middlesbrough. They must, then, succeed where 22 teams have failed this season – win at Turf Moor.
Burnley are already up but are still gunning for the title and their 5-0 win at QPR suggests they aren’t taking their foot off the gas despite securing promotion.
To finish fifth and set up an Alex Neil reunion with Sunderland, Millwall will need to win and Coventry and Bristol City will both need to fail to win.
BLACKBURN ROVERS
If Millwall are surprise final day contenders then it’s quite remarkable that Blackburn are still in the mix.
Less than a month ago, Rovers looked a club in complete chaos. They’d lost five games on the bounce after Valerien Ismael had replaced John Eustace in the dugout and the furious fans were protesting against the club’s owners.
What followed is the most unlikely turnaround. After a home draw with Sheffield Wednesday, Blackburn have won their last four, including the 1-0 success at Sunderland. But they need to make it five on the bounce if they’re to force their way into the top six, and a trip to Bramall Lane to face a Sheffield United side who Chris Wilder has vowed will go “full tilt” into the play-offs is a tough final day assignment.
Blackburn need to beat the Blades and hope Coventry and Millwall both fail to win.
Blackburn would finish fifth and play Sunderland if they won at Sheffield United and all of Millwall, Coventry and Bristol City failed to win.
MIDDLESBROUGH
It’s been quite the rollercoaster for Middlesbrough, who have been as high as fifth and as low as 13th in recent weeks.
Carrick’s side have picked up just one point from their last two games and now need to beat Coventry and hope both Millwall and Blackburn fail to win on the final day to get in the play-offs.
A mouthwatering Wear-Tees derby play-off semi-final feels unlikely. That would need Boro to beat Coventry, Millwall and Blackburn to both fail to win and for Bristol City to lose at home to Preston.
Boro will be kicking themselves having spurned countless opportunities in recent weeks, but Carrick insists his side haven’t given up hope.
Sunderland have done the double over Boro this season, with their success at the Riverside in February sparking wild Black Cats celebrations on the pitch and in the away end.
