3 MANCHESTER CITY (p34, 61pts)
Games left: Wolves (h), Southampton (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)
Tuesday’s last-gasp win over Aston Villa has strengthened Manchester City’s position significantly as they look to end a bitterly disappointing season with a return to the Champions League.
Matheus Nunes’ stoppage-time strike means City are four points clear of sixth-placed Chelsea, and while their continued involvement in the FA Cup could be something of a distraction, their remaining fixtures look extremely kind.
City will start as strong favourites against Wolves and Bournemouth at home, for all that the former are on a decent run of form, and the trip to Southampton is surely an open goal. By the time they head to Craven Cottage on the final afternoon, their Champions League place might already be guaranteed.
4 NOTTM FOREST (p33, 60pts)
Games left: Brentford (h), Crystal Palace (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (h)
Having wobbled with back-to-back defeats against Aston Villa and Everton, Nottingham Forest steadied the ship impressively as they won at Tottenham on Monday night. That victory, which saw Chris Wood back on the scoresheet, means Forest head into their final five games with a three-point cushion to sixth position.
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They might not need it as their run-in looks reasonably inviting, with three of their remaining five matches coming at the City Ground, where they have been so strong this season.
The Leicester game is surely a gimme, and even away matches at Crystal Place and West Ham offer a potential route to points. The final-day home game with Chelsea could turn into a winner-takes-all encounter, but as things stand, Forest hold by far the stronger hand.
5 NEWCASTLE (p33, 59pts)
Games left: Ipswich (h), Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a), Everton (h)
While Newcastle headed into last weekend in third position in the table, they now find themselves in fifth after losing at Villa Park. Even so, with five games to play and a two-point cushion to sixth position, their Champions League fate remains in their own hands.
Their run-in is something of a mixed bag, bookended with reasonably inviting home games against Ipswich, who are likely to be relegated when they head to St James’ Park this weekend, and Everton, who could well have switched off by the time they arrive on Tyneside on the final weekend given they play their emotional final game at Goodison a week earlier.
Newcastle’s remaining away games at Brighton and Arsenal are tricky, although the complexion of the latter would change markedly if the Gunners were to qualify for the Champions League final, but it is the home game with Chelsea on May 11 that could well prove key. Win that, and Eddie Howe’s side should be able to secure a return to Europe’s top table.
6 CHELSEA (p33, 57pts)
Games left: Everton (h), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), Man Utd (h), Nottm Forest (a)
Chelsea have to overhaul a two-point gap separating them from the current top five if they are to force their way back into the Champions League.
They are capable of doing it, but their form is rocky (they have won just two of their last five league games) and they have by far the toughest run-in of any of the sides still involved in the battle for the top five.
Three of their remaining five matches pit them against teams in the current top five – the games against Newcastle and Forest could well prove decisive – and even the other two, against Everton and Manchester United, have the potential to be tricky. If Chelsea make the Champions League, they will certainly have earned their spot.
7 ASTON VILLA (p34, 57pts)
Games left: Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a), Tottenham (h), Man Utd (a)
It only cost them one point, but the concession of a stoppage-time goal at the Etihad on Tuesday dealt a huge blow to Aston Villa’s hopes of forcing their way into the top five.
Not only are they now two points adrift of fifth position, they have played a game more than Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea and also have a markedly worse goal difference than all the sides currently above them in the table, effectively costing them another point.
If they win all four of their remaining matches, they will remain part of the mix, but that looks a tough ask with the trip to Bournemouth likely to be especially tricky. If Villa were to win their FA Cup semi-final against Crystal Palace at the weekend, perhaps Unai Emery would prioritise winning silverware at Wembley above the remaining league games.
Prediction: 3. Nottm Forest, 4. Man City, 5. Newcastle, 6. Chelsea, 7. Aston Villa
