The S&P 500 should get a bigger push than usual after Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, recent options data suggests.
The S&P 500 is slated to rise or fall 1.3% over the next two days, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs. That’s larger than the typical move of 0.8% in either direction seen on average by the broad index following Nvidia’s last eight earnings reports.
That’s due in part to an outsized move expected in Nvidia shares. The chipmaker’s two-day straddles imply the stock will either rally or tumble 10.3% follow its earnings print. In the past eight earnings cycles, it has notched an average realized move of 9.2% in either direction.
Nvidia has been a popular name in the options market, with the megacap tech giant representing 15% of all single-stock options over the past month.
Nvidia, 1-year
The report comes at a pivotal point for Nvidia amid rising concerns around artificial intelligence investment and competition. Nvidia shares have dropped around 1% in 2025 following two years of monster gains as AI captured investor attention.
Yet Wall Street expects the stock to rebound. The average analyst has a buy rating and price target suggesting more than 34% in upside, per LSEG.
Given Nvidia’s size with a market cap of more than $3 trillion, the stock’s post-earnings move is also likely to move a plethora of exchange-traded funds with significant holdings in the stock. Here’s the 10 that have moved most on average following Nvidia earnings over the last two years when adjusted for volume:
ETFs that have moved off Nvidia earnings
| Ticker | Fund | Average volume adjusted move over past 8 earnings reports (%) | Average absolute move over past 8 earnings reports (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| XLK | Technology Select Sector SPDR | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ | 1 | 1.2 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR | 1 | 0.7 |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 1 | 0.7 |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 | 1 | 0.8 |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | 1 | 0.8 |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Source: Goldman Sachs
