Does Europe have the necessary resources to match its ambitions in the space sector? As outer space has become an arena for military, technological, digital and economic rivalry among the world’s major powers, Europe faces a double setback. France is on the verge of losing its leadership role in a field in which the continent is losing ground. The Bremen summit, which brought together the space ministers of the 23 European Space Agency (ESA) member states on November 26 and 27, was intended to keep hope alive by safeguarding an increased budget. While it signaled the growing influence of Germany and Italy at France’s expense, it also exposed Europe’s weaknesses: disunity and the lack of a clear vision.
The ESA’s budget for the next three years is set to increase to an unprecedented €22 billion – a 30% rise. Although this surge signals recognition of space as a strategic priority for Europe, it still falls short of what is needed to compete with the United States and China.
Beyond financial considerations, the Bremen ministerial meeting underscored the emergence of a new kind of competition, driven in particular by Germany and Italy, who are ready to increase their contributions to ESA’s funding.
France, constrained by its own budgetary limits, has found it increasingly difficult to keep up and now risks losing influence over the allocation of European programs. These programs still operate under the “geographical return” rule, meaning each country contributing to the ESA budget receives in contracts for its industry an amount equivalent to its share of funding. Now relegated to third place behind Germany and Italy, France is no longer the dominant space power it once was and will need to draw lessons from this shift by strengthening cooperation with these countries.
Beyond this reshuffling, the delays Europe has accumulated raise questions about the wisdom of relying solely on joint ventures and major European programs. The shock of Europe being left without an autonomous rocket for several months – before the Ariane-6 launch in July 2024 – has prompted some countries to develop their own projects, including by turning to private funding.
This environment could foster the emergence of a future European SpaceX, encouraging greater risk-taking and breakthrough innovation. However, the proliferation of individual projects could also lead to a counterproductive “every country for itself” approach, at a time when Europe needs to pool its resources if it wants to remain a contender in space.
But this would first require a clear and shared direction. What Europe lacks most today is a political and strategic project for the space sector. The continent appears to act only in response to American or Chinese advances, with each European country protecting its own industry and jobs rather than embracing a broader vision. Setting priorities is now urgent if Europe is to address the challenges of sovereignty and defense. As long as the strategy remains vague and fluctuates according to the interests of individual member states, Europe will be doomed to play a supporting role.
