Handed the luxury of a month-long coast into the play-offs, the Sunderland boss was faced with a choice. Fitness or form? Was it best to freshen up the club’s key performers ahead of the play-offs, giving a seemingly much-needed rest to some of the players who had played in pretty much every game in the first eight months of the campaign? Or was it more important to stick with a full-strength team in an attempt to ensure performance levels and results did not drop, guarding against a stall in momentum ahead of the start of the semi-finals?
Le Bris chose the former. And it wasn’t a half-hearted selection either. The Black Cats boss set out his stall when he made four changes for the goalless home draw with Norwich City, resting Jobe Bellingham, Patrick Roberts and Wilson Isidor, and has stuck determinedly to his approach in the four games since. There have been outings for the likes of Joe Anderson, Harrison Jones, Salis Abdul Samed and Milan Aleksic. Tommy Watson has had a run of starts despite his impending departure to Brighton. Bellingham, Dan Neil and Chris Rigg have all taken turns on the sidelines.
As Sunderland’s results have faltered, with Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at Oxford extending the club’s winless run to five games, so the questions levelled at Le Bris from both supporters and the media have become more pointed. Yet the head coach has not wavered from his belief that he is doing the right thing. Indeed, if anything, his position has become more entrenched, his confidence in his own methods even more unshakeable.
Le Bris is adamant that the short-term pain of some disappointing performances and results is a price worth paying to enhance the prospects of the long-term gain of promotion. Is he right? Can, in his own words, a side “flick the switch” once the play-offs begin.
The historical results are mixed. Last season, Southampton were a shambles ahead of the play-offs, losing three of their final four matches in the regular Championship season, a run that included a 5-0 thrashing at Leicester City. When the play-offs began, however, they beat West Brom in the semis before seeing off Leeds United at Wembley.
In 2022-23, it was Luton Town that made it to the Premier League, seeing off Sunderland in the semi-finals before edging out Coventry City in the final. The Hatters were the form side heading into those play-offs, having remained unbeaten in the final 14 games of the regular season. For them, it felt like momentum was important.
The year before that, play-off winners Nottingham Forest had failed to win either of their final two games before the semi-finals. Twelve months before that, Fulham were on a seven-game unbeaten run ahead of their successful play-off campaign.
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Quite simply, there is no right answer, which is why the wisdom, or otherwise, of Le Bris’ stance will not become clear until Sunderland kick-off the play-offs with the away leg of their semi-final on May 9.
Between now and then, the Black Cats’ players are heading to Portugal for a warm-weather training break that will precede their final game of the regular season at home to QPR on Saturday lunchtime. Ideally, a refreshed and revitalised group will wipe the floor with a QPR side that have nothing to play for. Ultimately, though, it’s impossible to know whether it will really matter either way.
Le Bris knows there are elements of his side’s play that need to click back into gear once the first leg of the semi-final begins. The drop-off in attacking play in the last few games is a worry – Sunderland did not record a single shot on target at Oxford at the weekend – with Isidor’s 12-game goal drought a connected concern. At the other end, the Luke O’Nien-Chris Mepham axis does not look as watertight as it had appeared for much of the season.
Le Bris’ belief is that things will improve once the real business begins. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. But this is not the time to lose faith with the head coach or his methods. Pretty much everything the 49-year-old has touched since he arrived on Wearside has turned to gold. He has transformed a side that was completely rudderless at the end of last season, and improved a host of players who were threatening to stagnate after the failed experiments with Michael Beale and Mike Dodds.
He has earned the trust of those around him, whatever happens against QPR this weekend. Any plan is surely better than no plan. Everything Le Bris has done in the last month has been carefully calculated. Let us hope his equations turn out to have been the right ones.
