Turkey has long been seen as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East — geographically as well as diplomatically. As tensions rose between Washington and Tehran, Ankara had first attempted to mediate, warning that it would be “wrong to start the war again.”
“Iran is ready to negotiate on the nuclear file again,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the Qatar-based Al Jazeera news network in an interview late January. “My advice has always been to our American friends: close the files one by one with the Iranians. Start with the nuclear issue and close it. Then move on to the others.”
Complex conflict with multi-dimensional risks
Ankara fears that the US-Israel war with Iran could become a wildfire that spreads across the region — with humanitarian, economic and political fallout. Iran and Turkey share a 530-kilometer (330-mile) border in an area where the Kurdish ethnic minority is mostly concentrated.
Turkey fears the conflict could hamper the economy, driving Turkish inflation even higher, creating serious bottlenecks in the energy supply chain and slowing down tourism.
Ankara is also concerned about unpredictable political shifts in the Middle East, and does not want to see a return to friction with armed Kurdish groups in the region.
From a humanitarian perspective, missile strikes in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood have also fanned the country’s fears about a new large-scale refugee movement, as seen in 2015.
Turkey, a NATO ally exercising restraint
Turkey has a number of NATO-critical bases, including Incirlik Air Base, the largest US military base in Turkey and Kurecik Radar Station in the eastern Malatya province. Iran has not struck either yet, but NATO has shot down two incoming Iranian missiles in recent days, according to local authorities.
The first was intercepted over the Mediterranean on March 4 as it was heading toward Turkish airspace. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, Turkish officials close to the government speculated that the missile had veered off course on its way to Cyprus. Meanwhile, Iranian armed forces officials told Iranian media they never fired at Turkey, giving assurances that the government respected Turkey’s sovereignty.
On Monday, a second ballistic missile from Iran entered Turkey’s airspace before being intercepted above Gaziantep. Turkey’s defense ministry has responded by announcing that a Patriot missile defense system will be deployed near the Kurecik NATO radar base.
Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies says that Turkey has been striving to maintain neutrality. Since the beginning of the US-Israel war with Iran, Turkey has intensified its pursuit of diplomatic channels with the US, EU and Gulf states, he said, adding that Turkish overtures have so far fallen on deaf ears.
The way he sees it, none of the warring parties are currently considering serious negotiations, suggesting that Turkey’s diplomatic efforts are a way of profiling itself for a future role.
According to government circles, Ankara is “sensitively carrying out necessary initiatives with all our counterparts,” to allow for talks between the conflicting parties on equal footing.
But Turkey is caught in a dilemma: On the one hand, the collapse of Tehran’s government could plunge its neighbor into chaos. But, on the other hand, should the current system survive, conflict and unrest could also ensue.
Ethnic tensions and the role of the Kurdish minority
Media outlets have speculated whether the US plans to use Kurdish troops for a ground offensive in Iran — much to Ankara’s dismay.
Officially, Turkey views the Kurdish militant political organization, the PKK, as defeated and its Syrian sister organization, the YPG, as weakened. However, arming Iranian Kurdish groups could shift power dynamics across the region.
It could undermine Turkey’s peace process with the PKK, which the government calls its “terror-free Turkey” initiative.
Fears of a new refugee movement
Ankara took in millions of refugees fleeing from the Syrian civil war in 2015, in spite of its own economic hardship. Now, the government is reluctant to face a similar situation as Iranians flee to safety.
According to media reports, there are plans for displacement camps on the Iranian side of the shared border, and in the past years, the border wall between both countries has been extended. But neither the government nor experts say they are currently expecting refugee numbers to rise dramatically.
The security expert Ulgen pointed to refugee movements from Iraq in the 1990s and Syria in the 2010s, and noted how most did not set out until after the civil war in their country has broken down into infighting between multiple factions.
So far, border officials have not reported any larger movements of people. And if a large number of refugees do flee the region, it is expected to only partly consist of Iranians: An additional 2 million Afghans are predicted to also leave Iran and continue westward.
Turkey left in the lurch?
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen raised eyebrows when she recently commented on Turkey’s fears of a new mass migration movement in a social media post by praising the government’s “preparedness efforts to deal with a potential impact of this crisis on migration.”
“Regional and global stability is at stake,” she added, “we’re well aware of this.”
In Turkey, many have interpreted this as a signal that Europe intends to once again turn Turkey into a buffer zone to absorb refugees fleeing from the east before they reach the European Union.
Gülsen Solaker and Maren Sass contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.
