Jake Johnson claims victory in 1st district race against Brad Finstad, but a recount is likely

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One of the most competitive congressional races in the country has still not been called yet, as Democrat Jake Johnson holds a narrow 323 vote lead over Republican Brad Finstad in Minnesota’s first district, and it appears headed to a recount.

Democrat Jake Johnson, who campaigned on lowering costs and investing in rural small towns, may have delivered a massive upset in southern Minnesota over Republican congressman Brad Finstad. But the race remains too close to call and appears to be headed to a recount.

Unofficial results reported by the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office show Johnson ahead by 323 votes, and if the results hold up, he would add another seat to the new Democratic majority in the U.S. House following Tuesday’s historic blue tsunami.

Johnson, 43, a former high school math teacher and first-time candidate for public office, declared victory in the race for Minnesota’s First Congressional District early Wednesday morning. He then celebrated with hundreds of supporters at a Rochester event center Wednesday night.

“This is not my victory. This is by us. This is for us,” Johnson said. “And you have been very clear, charged me to deliver on promises, on action, on things that we can see that improve our lives: bringing down the cost of living, tackling corruption and investing in southern Minnesota again. That’s what I’m going to Congress to do.”

A Democrat hasn’t held this seat since Gov. Tim Walz gave it up to run for governor in 2018. Walz served the district as the district’s congressman for 12 years, from 2007 to 2019. U.S. Rep. Finstad, 50, a fourth generation farmer and a former USDA official and state representative, has held the seat since winning a special election in 2022 to fill the remainder of the term of the late Jim Hagedorn, who died in office.

The southern Minnesota district, which runs along the Mississippi River from Red Wing to the Iowa border and then continues west to the South Dakota border, was initially thought to be a relatively safe one for Republicans to hold onto. Finstad won it by 17 points two years ago. But in recent weeks, polls showed Johnson gaining ground as he capitalized on President Trump’s growing unpopularity and attacked Finstad for his support for data centers, his votes to cut Medicaid and SNAP funding and his backing of the war with Iran that has led to soaring gas and diesel prices.

As the race tightened, millions of dollars in outside money poured into it.

Johnson credited his grassroots approach with helping him surpass expectations. He held 21 town hall meetings across the district during his campaign as he criticized Finstad for holding none. He said his team continued knocking on doors to sway voters right up until 8:00 p.m. Tuesday night, when polls closed.

“We can count tens of thousands of doors knocked by dedicated volunteers telling their story, sharing their truth,” Johnson told his supporters Wednesday night. “Neighbors talking to neighbors, strangers talking to strangers, Republicans, Independents and Democrats coming together to reject corruption and pave a path — not paid for by corporate lobbyists, but by grit, sweat and our stories, right? And pundits, they told me it can’t be done. We shrugged, and we did it anyway.”

Finstad made government fraud a center point of his campaign, in line with other Republicans. Finstad has not yet conceded the race. He and his campaign have not responded to an interview request from MPR News, but early on election night, he told reporters at his event in Sleepy Eye he was optimistic about the outcome of the race. He also noted the national attention and millions of dollars spent on negative campaign ads.

“I think people are just sick of dysfunction in general in politics. What we have seen this cycle with, again, the negative ads and just the negativity around it,” Finstad said. ”We need adults in the room now more than ever as a country. People are asking for that, and I look forward to being that adult in the room.”

The race was forecasted to be one of the most competitive in the country, and it has proven to be a nail-biter. Johnson earned 49.99 percent of the vote — just one tenth of a percentage point more than Finstad’s 49.89 percent. The Associated Press has yet to officially call this race.

What can Minnesotans expect with a recount?

University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs says under state statute, the close margin qualifies for a publicly-funded recount if Finstad requests one.

“The race is just incredibly tight, so there’s going to be a real interest in the Finstad campaign to make sure that the votes were counted correctly,” Jacobs said.

On Election Day, Minnesota votes were counted with optical scans of the ballot. That process is known to have a high degree of accuracy, but Jacobs explained that a recount delivers an even more scrupulous examination.

Election officials physically examine and hand-count every ballot with representatives from each campaign watching. Poll workers sort the ballots into piles for each candidate. Jacobs said the time-intensive process can take a month to complete, but it’s important to maintain transparency and faith in the election process.

“It’s very public, and each campaign is able to see exactly what’s happening,” Jacobs said. “The hope is the result, then, is considered to be legitimate, and the losing candidate doesn’t feel like they were cheated out of winning.”

While Johnson’s celebration of his victory may be a little premature, Jacobs said it’s likely his victory will likely be upheld after a recount.

“If the lead was, let’s say, a few dozen votes or a few votes, then yes, there’s a chance that the race would be reversed,” Jacobs said. “But generally, in Minnesota, if it’s in the hundreds, the race stands. I would assume that the effort by Finstad to reverse the results will not succeed.”

Neither Finstad nor his campaign have indicated yet if they will seek a recount.