Finstad vs. Johnson race in southern Minnesota could help flip the House

One of the most competitive congressional races in the country is in southern Minnesota, where residents are being subjected to a barrage of political ads. Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave to flip a Republican district that the GOP is rallying to defend.

DFL candidate Jake Johnson, a high school math teacher in Rochester, is running to unseat two-term Republican Rep. Brad Finstad. Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District was initially projected to be a fairly safe one for the Republican, but that’s shifted amid voter discontent with rising inflation, high gas and diesel prices, the war with Iran and other Trump administration policies.

The Cook Political Report changed its rating of the district from “likely Republican” to “leaning Republican” a couple weeks ago. Political data expert and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver this week called it one of the 10 most competitive races in the country.

Jim Cottrill, a political science professor at Winona State University, said this is a race to pay attention to, especially because a Johnson win could help Democrats win control of the U.S. House.

“Both parties have a really strong interest in trying to sway [voters] because the margin of the Republicans the last couple years has been razor thin,” Cottrill said. “The Senate was thought to be a pretty safe one for the Republicans until recently. The fact that the Senate is back in play makes the stakes for the House even higher.”

The race is drawing national attention. President Donald Trump posted an endorsement of Finstad on his Truth Social social media platform Monday. Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, a possible contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, will campaign with Johnson at his Vikings watch party Sunday.

The high stakes are evident in the huge amounts of money both campaigns are bringing in. Between reported candidate spending through the middle of this month and a recent onslaught of groups plowing money in, the price tag for the race already tops $11 million.

“Most Minnesotans don’t have money to just throw away,” Cottrill said. “It’s coming from out-of-state billionaires to try to get the outcome that they desire. Money follows competitiveness, and that’s a sign that everybody thinks it’s competitive.”

Similar, yet different

In some ways, Johnson and Finstad are remarkably similar. The two men were born and raised in southern Minnesota with lots of siblings. Both have large families of their own — Finstad has seven children and Johnson has four. And both say they met their wives on the school bus in elementary school.

But they’re running very different campaigns.

Finstad has made fraud a center point of his campaign, in line with other Republicans. Many of his attack ads against Johnson work to connect the Rochester teacher with Gov. Tim Walz, who Republicans allege allowed fraud to run rampant.

Finstad told MPR News that fraud is top-of-mind for the district voters he’s been talking with.

“I get asked the questions all the time: ‘What at the federal government can we do? How can we help the state fix this problem?’” Finstad said. “I hear it from Republicans, Democrats, people that don’t give a hoot about politics. It is over and over again the theme that I hear.”

Meanwhile, political newcomer Johnson’s ads attack Finstad’s record, focusing on his support for data centers, voting to cut Medicaid funding, backing the war with Iran that has led to soaring diesel prices and also President Trump’s trade wars that have driven prices of many goods higher, while closing off important markets to Minnesota-grown crops such as corn and soybeans.

“Tariffs in southern Minnesota are crazy,” Johnson told MPR News. “Cutting health care when you are the home of the Mayo Clinic — crazy. Supporting an Iran war six times through his votes. Driving up the cost of diesel for our farmers at harvest time. That’s crazy.”

Why is Johnson surpassing expectations?

Johnson, like many Democrats trying to unseat Republicans, is getting in front of constituents as much as possible. He’s held 21 town hall meetings so far — one for every county in the district — and has pledged to keep this going if elected.

Johnson credits this strategy with helping him gain voter support and move up in the polls.

“Not only has it given people an opportunity to share their hopes, their dreams, their fears, their angers, their frustrations with the current representation, but it has also really empowered people to say you don’t have to just sit on the sidelines — you can get engaged with politics,” Johnson said.

Johnson has accused Finstad, who rarely holds town hall meetings, of being unavailable to his constituents. But Finstad said that accusation is inaccurate. While drafting the recently passed Farm Bill, for example, Finstad — a farmer himself — said he held listening sessions across the district to meet with farmers and integrate their input into the legislation.

“I don’t think [Johnson’s] paid attention [for] more than the last couple months because I’ve been doing this my whole life,” said Finstad, who serves on the House Committee on Agriculture.

Political scientist Cottrill said the race is basically a toss-up. It won’t be easy for either side to win. But Johnson is doing better than expected. He’s been able to leverage the national anti-Trump mood against Finstad, and he’s endearing himself to voters with his folksy, grassroots approach.

“When people are feeling like the government is out-of-touch and not responding to their needs, the strategy of holding town halls and meetings is often effective, even if not that many people actually turn out,” Cottrill said.

A new supporter

If Johnson pulls off an upset, it will be because of voters like Brandon Kroeger. A longtime Republican, the 51-year-old has repeatedly voted for Finstad. But this year, he’s voting for Johnson.

Kroeger said the Trump administration’s federal immigration enforcement action was the turning point. He owns a construction company in New Richland. When ICE began to target Minnesota, a member of his crew, who was pursuing legal immigration after fleeing from El Salvador years ago, was called to the Whipple building for an urgent meeting regarding his case. Kroeger offered to accompany him.

“We no more than got in the waiting room, and ICE grabbed him,” Kroeger recalled. “I’m not the type of guy that cries. I’m just not that way. But in this case, I was so devastated. He was just trying to do everything right, and now he’s separated from his wife and son.”

The immigration crackdown isn’t his only concern with Republican leadership.

Kroeger’s company relies on materials imported from Canada, and he said his business is getting slammed by soaring prices driven higher by Trump’s tariffs, which Finstad supported. Filling up his diesel trucks has become much more expensive, too.

While Finstad may have lost one voter in Kroeger, he still has many supporters across the district, and he said he’s proud of the progress he’s made in Congress. He said his support of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, for example, helped lower taxes.

If reelected, he pledges to continue working across the aisle to get things done.

“I pride myself on being a workhorse and not a show horse,” Finstad said. “I dig in and am constantly looking at getting results. You know, a lot of these issues are not partisan issues. They’re just common sense issues.”