Judy Seeberger and Tom Dippel, Julia Coleman and Dan Kessler rematches in Minnesota Senate

A pair of first-term Minnesota senators in the suburbs — one Republican and one Democrat — face reelection rematches that could decide which party controls the chamber.

In the eastern Twin Cities suburbs, Republicans hope to flip a Senate district that covers parts of Cottage Grove, Hastings and Lake Elmo. Sen. Judy Seeberger, DFL-Afton, is seeking reelection against state Rep. Tom Dippel.

And in the southwest suburbs, Democrats hope to pick up a seat representing Chaska, Chanhassen and Waconia. Sen. Julia Coleman, R-Waconia, is trying to hold onto the seat as she faces a challenge from DFLer and psychologist Dan Kessler.

The incumbents tout their track records working across the aisle in representing their politically purple districts. But they face potential political headwinds, along with funding from the opposite party and outside groups aimed at moving the needle.

Seeberger vs. Dippel

Sen. Judy Seeberger frequently notes the narrow margin that got her elected in 2022.

“I won by 321 votes,” Seeberger said. “What that tells me, and what I know about this district, is we have a mix of different people. We have Democrats. We have Republicans. We have independents. We have libertarians. We have people that have just checked out of the political process. And I represent them all.”

That 2002 win over Republican Tom Dippel shaped how Seeberger worked in the Legislature. And, in a rematch bid against Dippel, who is now a state representative, she said she’s ready for another close contest.

“What I’ve heard people say is, they’re sick of the partisanship. They’re sick of people not getting along, and I’ve taken that to heart,” she said. “I’ve done a lot of work to foster relationships across the aisle and in the other chamber, establish trust.”

Republicans have the seat in their sights as a potential flip. Both halves of the district are currently represented by Republicans, Dippel and Rep. Wayne Johnson. The contest has drawn almost $500,000 so far with the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and Senate DFL Caucus putting up more than $92,000 to keep the seat.

Dippel said voters are concerned about affordability and fraud in state government programs. And he said Republicans are better positioned to address those issues.

“I want to make sure that our government is right-sized again, and roll back many of the things that have caused everyday Minnesotans and every constituent in my district to have to pay more for things, whether it’s going to the pump or paying their property taxes and their mortgage,” Dippel said.

Under a DFL trifecta in 2023 and 2024, the state budget grew too much and too many new regulations for businesses and schools were enacted, Dippel said.

“If you focus on, say, five years ago in Minnesota … people thought that we were definitely closer to a balance of taxes and fees in Minnesota than we are now,” Dippel said. “And of course, what happened was there was a massive increase in the state budget, and the nearly entire $18 billion surplus was spent and is basically gone.”

Seeberger said DFLers used the budget surplus to add new programs including paid family and medical leave, universal school meals and a child tax credit that bring down costs.

“While the Legislature can’t necessarily control the cost of a loaf of bread or, you know, a gallon of gas, what we can do is offer relief in different areas, and that’s what we’ve tried to do,” Seeberger said.

She said some of the programs passed under the trifecta could be adjusted next year. And she blames President Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran for increasing prices.

Both Seeberger and Dippel said lowering car tab fees, removing taxes on Social Security benefits and funding water treatment projects to eliminate forever chemicals are key concerns, too. And they said more needs to be done next year to prevent fraud in state government programs.

Coleman vs. Kessler

In the southwest suburbs, Democrats hope to defeat Republican Sen. Julia Coleman, who was elected in 2022. Two years later, Kamala Harris narrowly won the district.

“Donald Trump barely lost this very purple district,” Coleman said, “and I was able to win by eight and a half points. I think that our voters here are intelligent enough to separate out how they want to vote, whether that’s cross ballot or if they’re independent minded, looking at each and every person on the ballot.”

Coleman faces Democrat Dan Kessler in a rematch. And Democrats hope record disapproval of the president trickles down. The Senate DFL Caucus spent more than $10,000 opposing Coleman in the race, while the independent expenditure group Advance Minnesota is spending almost $160,000 opposing Kessler.

Kessler said demographic shifts in the western suburbs, along with lingering frustration with the Trump administration over its immigration enforcement surge could reshape this rematch.

“The state of Minnesota was under siege. For months, people were afraid to send their kids to school,” Kessler said, noting his daughter carried a photocopy of her passport to school. “Some people chose to do nothing, or maybe write a strongly worded letter. Other people chose to act and do something. Those of us who acted saw something that I think our president wasn’t expecting. This state came together.”

Kessler said affordability is also top of mind for voters as he knocks doors.

“Healthcare has gotten more expensive. Childcare has gotten more expensive. Housing has gotten more expensive. People are putting off marriage and children, and worrying about school and daycare expenses,” Kessler said. “And there’s something we can do about that, and I’d like to be involved in making change.”

Coleman said affordability is an issue voters raise with her, too. But she said many focus on how the state is using taxpayer dollars.

“We want to see our schools thriving. We want to see services going to people that need them, and when we hear story after story after story about fraud, eventually we just feel pretty beaten down,” Coleman said.

She said while abortion access was an issue that drove Democratic gains in 2022, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the biggest issue motivating voters this year has been misuse of state money. Coleman said that might help offset political trends that tend to hurt the party that controls the White House in the midterms.

“It feels completely, completely different this year,” Coleman said. “I’m still talking to voters from all walks of life and all different political backgrounds, and there’s some sort of shift happening here in Minnesota.”

Outside spending in the race has attempted to tie Kessler to fraud during the Walz administration. Kessler said the Legislature, including his opponent, should’ve heeded warning signs about fraud sooner.